41 states face retirement gaps as long-term care costs climb

A CareScout Analytics analysis reviewed by LTC News says retirees in 41 states and Washington, D.C., are likely to outlive their savings, with the average 65-year-old facing a $109,000 lifetime shortfall. The findings highlight how long-term care remains a major blind spot in retirement planning as care needs and dementia costs rise.

Why it matters: - The analysis suggests many retirees are underestimating one of the biggest threats to financial security: extended long-term care needs. - Retirement plans that ignore care costs can leave older Americans exposed to faster savings depletion, especially after a health event or dementia diagnosis. - The report also points to a growing burden on families who may otherwise become unpaid caregivers.

What happened: - CareScout Analytics modeled retirement income and lifetime expenses across the U.S. and found that retirees in 41 states and Washington, D.C., are projected to run short. - The average 65-year-old faces an estimated lifetime funding gap of $109,000. - Only nine states were projected to have enough retirement resources to cover expected lifetime expenses: Washington, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nebraska, Idaho, Minnesota, Utah, Maryland and Montana. - LTC News reported the findings this week in a story titled "Millions of Americans Risk Outliving Their Retirement Savings. Long-Term Care Could Be the Biggest Missing Piece."

The details: - The CareScout analysis compared projected retirement income from Social Security, pensions, retirement accounts and personal savings with expected lifetime costs. - Those costs included housing, taxes, healthcare and long-term care. - Federal research shows 56% of Americans turning 65 will eventually need long-term services and supports. - The Alzheimer’s Association’s 2026 report estimates 7.4 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer’s disease. - The Alzheimer’s Association projects long-term care costs for people living with dementia will reach $409 billion in 2026. - LTC News says its Cost of Long-Term Care Services Directory shows current and projected costs for services nationwide. - LTC News says its Caregiver Directory includes more than 80,000 listings of caregivers and care facilities, including senior communities, adult day care centers, assisted living, memory care and nursing homes. - LTC News says families can search the directory by zip code or city and filter by a loved one’s needs.

Between the lines: - The report reinforces a common warning from financial advisors and long-term care insurance specialists: market returns alone do not solve retirement risk. - Long-term care can force retirees to liquidate assets, potentially in a down market, and can create tax complications for families self-funding care. - The data also shows how aging, chronic illness and dementia are becoming central retirement planning issues rather than side concerns. - Nick DeFrank, vice president of LTC News, said long-term care events such as stroke, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s or frailty can drain savings faster than almost any market downturn. - DeFrank said long-term care insurance can help preserve portfolios, support care at home longer and reduce the caregiving burden on families.

What's next: - As more Americans approach retirement, planners and families are likely to face greater pressure to account for long-term care costs earlier in the process. - LTC News says it is reaching hundreds of thousands of people each week with content on aging, caregiving, health, long-term care and retirement planning. - Families evaluating coverage and care options will likely rely more on cost directories and caregiver databases as they compare plans and facilities.

The bottom line: - For many retirees, the biggest gap is not just how long savings last in the market. It is whether those savings can survive a long-term care event.